The Future: The Age of Random Access
by John V. Pavlik (Columbia Center for the New Media)
"If I were to give you an army of 10 thousand people, could you build a pyramid? A computer gives the average person, a high school freshman, the power to do things in a week that all the mathematicians who ever lived until 30 years ago couldn't do."
—Ed Roberts
Designed the first personal computer
On the Holodeck
Emerging technologies are rapidly transforming the media landscape. Advances in the Internet and the World Wide Web, wireless communications and digital video technology are creating an entirely new communication environment in which the roles of media consumer and content creator often blur and interactivity becomes a reality. Multimedia technology, virtual reality and flat panel displays are redefining the media experience, transforming the narrative structure of media images, sound and text into non-linear, immersive, hypertext communication. Media consumers have unprecedented choice and control over the media experience, selecting not just what they watch, read or hear, but when and where they do so. Nomadic computing is rapidly becoming more a buzzword; it's becoming a 21st Century way of life. Journalists may find their methods of news gathering transformed by light-weight, wearable technologies (such as augmented reality, which adds layers of visual and other information onto "reality" as viewed through a head-mounted display) linked to massive databases through high-speedh wireless technologies. Prof. Steven Feiner at Columbia University has already developed a working prototype of an augmented reality system for use on the Columbia campus, where the wearer can walk through the campus and "see" architectural and other information superimposed upon buildings such as the historic Low Library. Imagine reporting from the scene of a building explosion, surveying the wreckage with an augmented reality viewer, and quickly determining the inner structure of the building. The Center for New Media (CNM) at the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism is developing a Mobile Journalist Terminal (MJT) that will incorporate Feiner's and other new media technologies into a single integrated system for advanced nomadic news reporting. This research is being conducted in collaboration with a number of programs at Columbia, including Engineering and Computer Science in an attempt to blend the process of technology development and content creation in an interdisciplinary Engineering Research Center (ERC). Another important development is the miniaturization of mobile satellite phones, which just a decade ago were so cumbersome they required a sea-chest and a very strong back for portability. Introduced in 1996 is a notebook-sized Mini-M satellite phone from NEC Corporation that uses the Inmarsat satellite communications system to allow anyone anywhere in the world instaneous high-bandwidth, 25 Mbps capability for delivering fax, data, voice and e-mail communications. The system fits in a standard briefcase, weighs a remarkable 2.6kg (a little more than a pound) and runs on a built-in rechargeable lithium-ion battery pack, car battery or AC power.
The commercial media system itself is undergoing a "mediamorphosis," as well, moving away from passive, scattershot content delivery, toward highly targeted messaging, blending the best of both push and pull network technology. A double-edged sword, this new media engine may present both a marketer's paradise, and a consumer's privacy nightmare.
Much media content in the years ahead will still consist of packaged products of news, information, entertainment and advertising manufactured by highly centralized media organizations, but tomorrow's media will increasingly target in real-time the demands, tastes and preferences of ever more specialized niche audiences spread over diverse geographic audiences. The new media system will not rigidly divide along the traditional lines of delivery such as print, broadcast and cable, but will become true multimedia technologies, involving new forms of mediated communication, ultimately embracing the tactile technology of emerging virtual reality systems. Shared media experiences, although increasingly rare on a mass scale, will take on an entirely new meaning, one in which audiences anywhere around the globe will be enveloped in a total sensory media experience created at least in part by those audiences. Increasingly, each member of the new media audience will have direct access to this information superhighway through lightweight, portable, wireless multimedia devices, totally enveloping multi-sensory datasuits, or communal media technologies featuring multi-dimensional images and stereophonic sound not unlike the holodeck on the Starship Enterprise featured in "Star Trek: The Next Generation."
Of course, not every media experience will be of this Buck Rogers' type. Consumers will spend much of their media time reading newspapers printed on traditional newsprint. They will still read leather-bound and paper-back books. They will still listen to the radio, watch TV and get advertising circulars in the mail. And the Publisher's Clearinghouse will probably still proclaim half of America "Winners" in its multi-million dollar lottery. Moreover, legal and regulatory frameworks will continue to evolve mechanisms to monitor and control the new media system. With the policymaking process frequently lagging well beyond the more rapidly changing new media technology landscape, one can't help but recall a story told by Kenneth M. King, former president of EDUCOM. "A turtle was mugged by a gang of snails in Central Park. When making his report to the police, the turtle lamented: 'It all happened so fast.'"
Freedom of expression issues will take on even greater significance in the new media environment. Although A.J. Liebling's words still ring true, "Freedom of the press belongs to those who own one," the Internet and other media technologies are empowering members of virtual communities around the globe. They are providing a new electronic age printing press that costs little to operate and reaches audiences of millions in almost instantaneous fashion. John Siegenthaler, a Pulitzer-prize winner newspaper editor and former chairman of The Freedom Forum First Amendment Center, says the information superhighway already is being dominated by 18 wheelers, including the baby bells, cable TV companies and other corporate players who are used to working in a regulated environment. These companies are likely to compromise on First Amendment issues, he cautions. News organizations, journalism educators and other guardians of the First Amendment will need to be vigilant in the new media environment if we, as a society, are to preserve free speech values. This is especially important, Siegenthaler adds, if it is true that a free press is one of the cornerstones of
democracy.
The social and cultural consequences of these new media technologies are
profound. They are creating unprecedented opportunities for political
participation, through electronic town halls, direct-access to political
leaders and, potentially, online voting. At the same time, issues of
equitable access and cost considerations are challenging the very political
viability of creating a new information infrastructure. Umberto Eco, noted
Italian author and inaugural visiting scholar at the Italian Academy for
Advanced Studies in America at Columbia University, observes that we are
likely moving into a society with three classes: those who don't have access to the Internet, those who have access but it is mainly passive (i.e., they just surf the 'Net) and those who know how to control it (what the Russians call the proletariat)?. Social fragmentation is only one of the many potential negative consequences of the new technologies that are increasingly leading media consumers into online worlds and away from their geographically defined communities.
User Control and User Choice: New and Improved Media
For the media consumer, perhaps the most important difference between old and new media is greater user choice and control. Unlike any time before, media audiences will have ever greater choice and control over media content and the media experience in general. Video on demand, including pay-per-view movies, news on demand, educational programming and documentaries will all be available over the information superhighway. The shift in the media paradigm is from strict source or media control over content delivery to increasing user control. Emerging in the new media age is what can be described as nothing less than ubuiquitous news and information. With the growth of Internet-based news and information products, ranging from broadcast-type services such as PointCast to on-demand news products on the World Wide Web, anyone with Internet access can obtain non-stop comprehensive news and information about anything from breaking news to news analysis. With a variety of wireless devices now available to link hand-held PDAs to the Internet and the Web, such on-demand news is available anytime and anywhere around the globe.
Simultaneously, media audiences will enjoy increasing interactivity on the information highway. They will have opportunities to interact with media content, selecting different options from pre-set video library menus, to battling enemy starships in video games. Audience members will also be able to participate in the process of content creation, sending messages, home video or data files to anyone else on the system. Over time, the superhighway will offer increasing opportunities for moving beyond 2-way communication and into an n-way media environment in which hundreds, thousands, even millions will participate in a rich communication smorgasbord. Virtual worlds will be created by media audiences around the world in which the dimensions of that world are limited only by the imaginations of those within it. The seeds of this n-way communication world can already be seen in on the World Wide Web, increasingly graphical and three-dimensional multi-user domains (MUDs) and high-quality, low-cost video-conferences.
Does all this mean the end of the couch potato? Not at all. Not only will traditional passive media consumption continue, but it will thrive in an increasingly complex and stressful world demanding occasional if not frequent mindless escape. But the interactive, on-demand world of peronsalizeda communications will become a ready choice. Of course, too much interactivity could produce the era of the mashed potato.
Driving this user-controlled, interactive, multimedia world are the technological forces of digitization, compression and the broadband packet-switched telecommunications network. Through advances in computer technology, we are rapidly moving toward a united state of media in which all communications, from voice to data to full-motion video, are available in digital form, computer readable 1s and 0s. Compression technology has made it possible to compact that digital data, especially full-motion video, into smaller and smaller packets. The convergence of telecommunications and cable, along with the deployment of advanced optical fiber, has provided a high-capacity electronic superhighway to transmit and provide access to all that compressed digital data.
A final technological factor contributing to the transformation of the media landscape is wireless communications. As the forces of digitization and compression have inexorably advanced, research has helped create an increasingly broadband packet-switched network that is not dependent on wires. Instead, we are moving toward a telecommunications highway universally available over the high-frequency wavelengths of the radio spectrum. By connecting to satellite and wired networks, this wireless network will provide a complementary and perhaps competitive alternative multimedia information superhighway. Although engineers have not yet achieved the necessary compression algorithms to distribute full multimedia communications via the wireless spectrum in a wide area network environment, they have done so in wireless local area networks. Moreover, they have developed increasingly efficient use and allocation of the wireless spectrum, including spread spectrum models which allows spectrum sharing for different applications and users. One interesting approach to high-speed communications in a wireless local area network is known as fiber-in-the-sky from CellularVision. It delivers up to 2Mb of bandwidth, making it possible to distribute broadcast-quality MPEG-2 digital video over a wireless local area network. When connected to a wired high-speed wide-area network, fiber-in-the-sky makes possible a phenomenon called nomadic computing. Nomadic computing means using a computer-based device, from a PDA to a laptop computer to access the information superhighway from any location, anywhere, anytime. Someday, we may see emerge global media nomads. We are already witnessing the application of nomadic computing and communications in state-of-the-art navigational systems for luxury automobiles. Cars such as the Acura, BMW, Cadillac, Lincoln and Oldsmobile all offer increasingly sophisticated dashboard navigational systems that rely on global positioning satellites (GPS), which can pinpoint a vehicle's location within 100 yards. These systems offer a variety of services, including on-screen maps and voice-activated navigation, as well as road-side assistance. Hand-held GPS devices are also now available, and are increasingly popular among hikers, sailors and pilots. The GPS 4000 from Magellan, for instance, is smaller than a walkie-talkie and weighs about 10 ounces. The federal government has launched a $40 million program to challenge cities to build even more sophisticated nomadic navigational systems. The program is designed to foster "intelligent transportation systems" in New York, Phoenix, San Antonio and Seattle, and will use web sites, interactive television and navigational devices in cars to facilitate commuting. One of the critical issues to resolve involves building complete inter-operable network environments that support easy access (via either of the main methods of connecting to the Internet, either Point-to-Point Protocol, or PPP, which is more reliable-and has error corrrecting features-than the older Serial Line Internet Protocol, or SLIP), regardless of one's geographic location.
Parallel or Divergent Universes?
What price will a digital universe exact? No one really knows. Projected costs to build the new communication infrastructure range from hundreds of billions to several trillion dollars, for just the United States. Cost estimates are also in the hundreds of billions to create new information infrastructures in Japan and many other countries. Those developing new media products and services say that the actual price the consumer will pay will be modest. If it isn't then none of the products will succeed. Telecommunications expert John Carey suggests that the estimates for the new information infrastructure may not really be as expensive as some in the industry claim. In the area of interactive television, "it turns out that much of the cost associated with building the new infrastructure, particularly for telephone companies, involves investments that the companies would make regardless of any interactive television services," Carey explains.
"In other words, the incremental costs of building a network for interactive television are a modest addition to normal replacement and upgrading costs for their networks. So, when a telephone company says that it will spend $17 billion to build a telecommunication superhighway for ITV and other advanced services, it usually means that they plan to spend $2 billion more than they would otherwise spend for normal replacement and upgrading of their network. Further, the plans typically allow them to scale back the additional costs if market demand for new services is lower than expected. For cable operators, incremental costs are greater. However, they too can scale back investment if demand is lower than expected. Further, the investment will yield other benefits such as lower operating and maintenance costs."
But there are other costs, perhaps more significant than dollars. Among these are issues of access to the technology. Two principles that have guided public communication policy for most of the century are universal and equitable access. Unless these two principles apply equally well in the new media environment, the social costs will be high. Among the likely losers will be women, minority groups, inner city and rural dwellers, children, the elderly, the homeless and persons with disabilities. Other social costs may include social fragmentation, digital isolation and a falloff in political participation.
A related cost consideration involves the cost of building or rebuilding a public telecommunications system increasingly dominated by massive traffic on the Internet. The telecommunications network in the U.S. was built to support circuit-switched communications, primarily used for voice communications. "In spite of the great changes in technology, the basic concept of telephony has changed little over this century," observes Robert W. Lucky, Corporate Vice President of Applied Research at Bellcore, and the inventor of the "adaptive equalizer," a distortion-correction technology used in all high speed data transmission today. "Suddenly, a new paradigm has swept the world. Instead of two people speaking to each other in real time over a switched analog channel, asynchronous messaging and hyper-linked sharing of multimedia objects have become the objectives that must be supported by the future infrastructure." This will not come without a substantial investment--by someone. In the past it would have been the phone company, once a heavily regulated monopoly. Today, it is unclear who will pay the cost. "There is tremendous investment in the present infrastructure, which is not cost effective for these new objectives," Lucky cautions. "The question is: How do we get from here to there?"
The Consequences of Technology Convergence
One of the most basic trends in the new media environment is the convergence of multimedia and online, or networked, communications. As these systems converge, a truly unique and powerful new medium of public communication will emerge. Its commercial and cultural implications are as profound as they are remarkable. It is likely to transform virtually every social institution, from education to government, medicine to law, politics to religion, at home and abroad. This new medium will influence the process of human communication, the process by which social change occurs and the processes and mechanisms controlling both the U.S. and the world economy. The three most significant unanswered questions are:
* will these changes be for the better or worse?
* what will be the cost and for whom? and,
* what will be the timetable for change?
Countervailing Forces
Countervailing technological forces may also be at work, however, in the new media universe. One of the almost sacred primordial forces driving technological change during the past quarter century has been the dramatically falling price of computing power. Recent evidence suggests this trend may soon be slowing down, if not drawing to a close completely. As computer chip manufacturers have created ever-smaller chips capable of ever-greater calculation, the price of computing has fallen remarkably. Manufacturers today, however, may be reaching the theoretical limit to computer chip miniaturization. "The problem is that life gets harder for chip makers as dimensions shrink below a micron in size," reports Gary Stix. "At about 0.05 micron, the dimensions of the individual devices will be so small that quantum effects will disrupt their behavior. Then a new technology based on probabilistic laws will be needed." Producing reliable chips has also become increasingly complex and costly, as reflected in the initially flawed, super-fast Pentium chip. State-of-the-art chips now house some 16 million memory bits and require 200 processing steps. By 2001 reliable production techniques may require manufacturing devices as small as 15 to 50 nanometers, "less than the width of a coiled DNA molecule." Moreover, as the cost of chip manufacturing has fallen, the cost of chip design and manufacturing technology has risen. Gordon Moore, the former chairman of Intel, the world's largest chip manufacturer, noted that his company's first chip manufacturing plant in the late 1960s cost $3 million. "Today that is the cost of one piece of equipment in one of our plants," Moore observes. The next generation of chip manufacturing plants will exceed $1 billion in price, and by 2000 may cost ten times that. The effect on the semiconductor business is that returns on investment are threatened, and the drive to manufacture even smaller chips may stall.
If this trend toward chip miniaturization does draw to a close, projections for the future will change dramatically. It will not be safe to assume that super-powerful computing devices will become ubiquitous in at least the early 21st century. Information appliances will not become the consumer standard many hope for. The potential for video delivery and processing will fall dramatically, and the price will stabilize. Commercial investment in the new media, as a result, will slacken and economic growth will slow.
How likely is this dire scenario? Unless there is a breakthrough in chip design, it is fairly likely. Optical technology, however, though still in the laboratory research stages, is one of the most intriguing avenues for the future of computing. Optical, or photonic, computing, based not on the flow of electrons in a silicon-based computer chip, but on pulses of light in a new silicon environment, may unleash vast new opportunities to decrease the cost of computing power and dramatically increase computing power and speed—the theoretical limit is the speed of light, 186,000 miles per second. Moreover, if optical technology can be combined with some preliminary but theoretically sound research on organic neural networks, the next generation may reach new thresholds in computing power and intelligence. As an alternative to such designs, some companies are experimenting with three-dimensional micro-chips. Unlike traditional two-dimensional designs in which the chip is approximately 5 microns in height and the conducting wires and transistors lie across the insulating silicon base, Mitsubishi, I.B.M., Simens and Toshiba are developing chips 20-30 microns in height with wires, conductors and transistors all layered atop an insulating base of silicon. Such chips could eventually lead to the development of supercomputers the size of a sugar cube.
If computer speed, processing power and memory do continue to increase, the possibilities are seemingly boundless. Some selected predictions for 2000 include:
* Personal "Crays" capable of emulating any desktop, from Macintosh to PC with the power of today's supercomputer in a portable hand-held device, making nomadic computing and communications universal and ubiquitous;
* Smart TVs that remember past viewing patterns and suggest new shows that match tastes and preferences;
* Telephones that instantaneously translate callers speaking in any of a dozen or more languages; and,
* Artificial intelligence applications so smart and humanlike that they can replace entire corporate departments such as accounting or finance.
Bandwidth Challenged
A related problem involves bandwidth limitations in today's telecommunications networks. Although compared to the networks of a decade ago the capacity of today's networks is considerable, few anticipated the exponential growth in bandwidth demand brought on users of the Internet and World Wide Web in the 1990s. As networks clog and routers collapse, many see a potential hardening of the telecommunications arteries, despite the many millions of miles of high-bandwidth optical fiber now circling the globe.
Notably, however, an international consortium of research groups at AT&T, Fujitsu and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone (NTT) demontrated a system in early 1996 that could increase bandwidth by as much as a 1,000 fold by 2000. Transmitting one trillion bits of information in a single second over a single strand of optical fiber, the new technology was surpassed a few months later by a team at NEC Corporation, which transmitted two trillion bits in a second over a single strand of optical fiber.
Digital Publishing
The evolution of multimedia products in an online environment will push traditional and new media providers to explore new publishing frontiers. New media publishers will not only have opportunities to reach global audiences with multimedia products in real-time, but will also be able to completely rethink their relationship with advertisers and audiences. Further, they will have the unique opportunity to completely rethink their internal processes of content creation. No longer will they be constrained by traditional modes of product development. Conversely, the world of digital publishing will present considerable uncertainty for companies already unsure of themselves and their business future. All bets are off in the business of new media. Competitors will arise from every corner of the market and the world. Even the audience will be inclined and able to get in on the action in a computer-driven media world. One of the great question marks is how "secure" will the online communications world become. Today, the forces of government and the private sector are battling over whether to permit government eavesdropping on online communications, or to create a strong encryption technology for networked communications. The outcome will substantially affect the growth of both commerce and communication on the Internet. Strong encryption will foster a robust communication and commercial environment, where information and transactions flow on a national and international scale unparalleled in history. Nano-transactional models where micro-payments for information and intellectual property as well as other digital objects, such as digital cash, will become comonplace.
If the government wins the encryption war, the growth of commerce and communication on the Internet will slow, and perhaps even grind to a halt. Today's electronic mail travels over the Internet much as a post card travels through traditional postal services--anyone along the route can read its contents. Encryption such as PGP provides something akin to an electronic envelope, making it impossible for someone to see what's inside. Few consumers will be willing to send their credit card numbers around the globe knowing that it might be intercepted by anyone along the way. Conversely, should the government lose the struggle, various high-tech criminals will find the Internet a safe haven for their illicit communications and transactions. From drug dealers to tax evaders, a secure online environment means freedom from the watchful eye of law enforcement.
Without the wisdom of Solomon, the solution to this dilemma may never be found. One federal judge, however, has issued a landmark ruling against the federal government an important encryption case. The U.S. State Department had ruled in 1993 that Daniel J. Bernstein, then a graduate student at the University of California at Berkeley and now a University of Illinois mathematician, "would have to register as an international weapons dealer if he wanted to publish an encryption program or discuss it at academic conferences that foreigners might attend," reports John Markoff. Judge Marilyn Hall Patel of the U.S. District Court in San Francisco ruled in December 1996 that the State Department limits were an unconstitutional prior restraint on freedom of speech (prohibited in the classic Near v. Minnesota case ruled upon by the U.S. Supreme Court). Although the encryption issue is far from settled, the early evidence is weighing in favor of strong network encryption. Adding to this building momentum is the law of economics. Today, because the U.S. dominates the global information marketplace, there is great incentive for the federal government to provide mechanisms to support this continued economic advantage. Unless U.S. manufacturers and software developers are allowed to export their strong encryption technologies (many of the best encryption technologies, such as PGP, were developed by U.S. researchers), the marketplace will quickly become dominated by international players, where strong encryption is already available. It is likely the federal government in the U.S. will ultimately be swayed by the economic forces that mandate strong encryption if Internet commerce is ever to thrive, and if U.S. companies are to compete effectively in the international market for encryption technology.
Digital Security
Security in cyberspace will become a dominant issue in the years ahead. Consumers and businesses will need to be vigilant in protecting their communications, electronic products and commercial transactions in cyberspace. The cost of publishing online will rise as a result of security concerns and measures, at the same time increasing the cost of downloading electronic products and conducting electronic transactions and communications for the consumer. Similarly, the demand for electronic security will spawn new industries and trigger growth in existing companies involved in computer security. One possible new field will be insurance for electronic products, as a guard against electronic theft, vandalism or destruction of electronic property.
Publishers or "Content Providers"?
One of the growing debates in the new media world involves what values dominate the content production process. Will content producers continue in the tradition of the great publishers of the newspaper or magazine publishing world, placing concerns about freedom of expression, privacy and democratic processes high on the communication agenda? Will the values of the broadcast industry prevail? Where will concern about the public interest fit in this new scenario? Will everyone be reduced to the role of "content provider?" At a conference held in 1994 in Atlanta, heads of several hundred media publishing interests gathered to discuss the prospects for publishing on the information superhighway. When one participant encountered the president of the Chicago Bears, one of the two oldest National Football League franchises (the other being the Green Bay Packers), he asked him why he was attending the conference. His response was a simple, "Because we are a content provider."
Verifying Information
Journalism also faces another imminent threat on the global information grid. On a digital information superhighway characterized by a laissez faire marketplace where information is openly exchanged and computer network security is difficult if not impossible to guarantee, how does a media organization—or any other organization—verify the accuracy of data? How does it protect its intellectual property? The world's largest news service recently ran headlong into this problem. On Monday, April 4, 1994, a remarkable news story appeared exclusively on the global Reuters news service. In the wake of the assassination of Colosio, the leading presidential candidate in Mexico's 1994 elections, the story alleged that President Salinas was about to rewrite the Mexican constitution to allow him to run for another term in office. The story, however, was false. Someone had cracked the Reuters network and placed the fictitious report on the news wire.
The "FBI" Solution: A Digital Fingerprint
One possible solution has been introduced by a British company offering an electronic signature ID. Nottingham-based MOR Ltd. has developed a digital technique it calls "FBI" that combines a header, electronic "fingerprints" and alphanumeric ID sequence imprinted throughout an image or data file. The digital ID is completely transparent and hidden from view and is nearly impermeable to tampering. When used, it would provide a nearly permanent encoding system that publishers and other new media content providers could use to verify the source of a message and to determine whether a video or audio segment was pirated from an original feed.
Digital watermarks are under development a number of corporate and educational research institutions. One particularly interesting digital watermark is being developed by a research team at Columbia University lead by Professor Shih-Fu Chang and involving the Center for New Media at the Graduate School of Journalism. Unlike other digital watermarks, the Columbia project involves a digital signature that not only protect copyright, but authenticates the source of an image or document, and at the click of a mouse button, can identify the probability a document has been tampered with and how. Such authentication is critically important in an era of digital image manipulation, eroding news credibility, and a public disillusioned and mistrustful of most institutions. The Columbia digital watermark survives network transmission, compression and the most grueling of digital editing. Its ultimate test will likely be whether teen-age computer hackers will be able to crack its digital shield.
The Confluence of Information and Entertainment
Despite the allure of digital technology, it is important not to get caught up in the hype surrounding the information superhighway and new media technologies. Media entrepreneurs have been drawn by the siren call of new technology in the past, only to lose millions of dollars on failed technology applications. Many are already urging caution in investing huge sums in as yet unrealized technologies. Mark Stahlman, president of New York-based New Media Associates, is one entrepreneur sounding the alarm. He recently wrote in Wired magazine:
All the headlines about the digital, interactive, 500-channel, multi-megamedia blow-your-socks-off future are pure hype. Yes, all the wild Wall Street, through-the-roof, Crazy Eddie, cornucopia, shout-it-out-loud promo jobs are pure greed. It's all a joke.
It's now official. I'm announcing the beginning of convergence backlash. There will be no convergence. There will be no 500-channel future. There will be no US$3 trillion mother of all industries. There will be no virtual sex. There will be no infobahn. None of it—at least not the way you've been reading about it.
Sure the technologies are real. Digital compression and digital phone lines are real. Those 100-MIPS micros are real. Multimedia and high-speed networks are real. In fact, the technology is so real that it's almost obvious. Unfortunately, the businesses to exploit these technologies are anything but obvious.
Tomorrow's News
Although newspaper readership has been declining steadily for nearly four decades, does this mean people are less interested in reading the news? Does the decreasing audience for network television news mean people want to watch less televised news? Research suggests the answer to both these questions is no. One recent study shows that three out of four adults in the U.S. are still "very interested" in getting the latest news about current events. There is also much anecdotal evidence to suggest that people still have an insatiable appetite for news. Today there are more newsletters (10,000 in print and even more in electronic form), magazines (10,000), ethnic newspapers (500) and other successful printed news products than ever before. Moreover, the national newspaper USA Today, the Cable News Network (CNN), C-SPAN, the ever-vigilant eye on Congress and Washington, and CourtTV were all launched after 1980. Although few of these news and information products capture major audience shares, they have all carved out important niches.
If you are still not convinced, consider this scenario for one possible news product of the not-too-distant future. Imagine pulling out of your book bag an eight-ounce electronic tablet about the size of a notepad. Unfolding the flexible tablet, you say, "Let's see this morning's newspaper." As the tablet's voice recognition software interprets your command and identifies your voice pattern, the screen is quickly transformed into a full-color electronic version of your local newspaper, if you still wish to call it a "newspaper." It's really a hybrid news product. The design still looks like a newspaper, with a front page, headlines, text, pictures and graphics. But, it's really much more. A touch with the attached light pen, and a news photo comes to life, with full-motion video and audio. Another touch brings up a detailed historical analysis of the today's top news story. Reading a related editorial, you react strongly. Again using the light pen, you activate the tablet's microphone, which allows you to record a voice mail message to the editorial page editor, letting her know how you feel. PCS technology integrated into the tablet automatically sends your voice mail to the editor, who later hears your response, and sends you an equally strongly worded voice mail response. A classified ad catches your eye, and you use the light pen to extract more information about the product for sale. After seeing a three-dimensional picture of the product, you decide against making the purchase. As you look up, you see that you've reached the 116th stop on the number 1 line, and you put your tablet back in your bag and exit the subway, heading off to your graduate seminar in new media journalism at Columbia University in New York.
Network TV Online
The rise of electronic, online information services does not signal the end of traditional print forms of communication, such as network television, newspapers and magazines. "On-line services will coexist with print for the foreseeable future and maybe forever," says Stephen B. Shepard, editor in chief of Business Week. Print is still highly portable and relatively inexpensive, and previous predictions of a paperless office have failed to materialize. In fact, the opposite has occurred. By the end of the 1980s, after a decade of computerization in the workplace, "we had four times the amount of paper being created in offices," says Rich Karlgaard, editor in chief of Forbes ASAP, a technology supplement to Forbes magazine. Television is still well-produced, widely available, generally entertaining and never suffers from delays due to limited bandwidth.
Despite that, traditional programmers such as the major television networks have experimented with the delivery of their broadcast programming via the Internet. ABC TV, for example, has used streaming video products such as VivoActive to promote their new fall programming, offering snippets of shows such as Spin City to world-wide audiences on demand. NBC has even launched a specialized service called NBC Desktop Video, which brings video on demand to the desktop for many executives in the financial world, who have particular interest in tuning in to press conferences of the federal reserve board, etc.
What these efforts reveal, however, is that video on the Internet is not television. Rather, video on the Internet is a new communication tool that will never replace traditional television programming. Network capacity and configuration will likely never support the on-demand delivery of broadcast quality digital television. Rather, video on the Internet will evolve into a distinctive form of multimedia communication, on-demand, customizable and interactive, three qualities not possible in traditional television. These capabilities will lead the Internet and its delivery of multimedia content, to mature in a fashion complementary to traditional multimedia forms of news and entertainment delivered in broadcast fashion via terrestrial, satellite and cable transmission.
Dial N11 for News
Entry into the new media marketplace is remarkably simple and inexpensive, although this may rapidly change as competition heats up. Illustrative is the lottery for three-digit phone numbers Southern Bell held in May of 1994. Several Florida businesses won three-digit telephone numbers awarded in the first-ever such lottery. Southern Bell, a unit of BellSouth Corp., awarded the numbers 211, 311, 511, 711 and 811 in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando to a number of companies, including The Miami Herald, The Sun-Sentinel of Fort Lauderdale, The Orlando Sentinel, the Yellow Pages division of BellSouth and a several other businesses. The May 5 lottery was open to anyone willing to pay a $25,000 startup fee and a minimum $10,000 per month. Regulators, other phone companies and others interested in entering the expanding telecommunications market are watching to see how the so-called N11 services develop in Florida. Companies have filed petitions for N11 numbers in most states, but no utility regulators outside Florida have endorsed the commercial service, and BellSouth is the only regional Bell operating company to push for such sales. Bell Atlantic has planned a field trial using an N11 number to let residents of New Jersey have free telephone access to news and other information. In contrast, the Texas Public Utility Commission decided on April 27, 1994, that newspapers and other businesses can not use three-digit telephone numbers for commercial purposes. The commission agreed with an administrative law judge who ruled that permitting businesses to use the scarce numbers would give them an unfair commercial advantage. The FCC has yet to weigh in on the issue. Most well-known among these services is the widely available 911 emergency line. Phone companies typically use 411 or 611 for directory assistance and service calls.
Winners of the Florida lottery can charge consumers per call or offer
services to callers for free, as well as add advertising to those services. Newspapers might offer, for example, sports scores, sponsored by a pizza parlor or local sportswear shop. The Atlanta Journal and Constitution newspapers in Georgia and the Palm Beach Post of West Palm Beach, Fla. also have experimented with three-digit numbers to offer information services.
A Business Manager's Guide to Digital Publishing
Although no one knows the exact parameters of the emerging new media environment, the basic topography of that world has begun to take shape. New media products, regardless of their content, audience or means of delivery, will be in digital form. Products will migrate rapidly toward the multimedia format, especially on the Internet and the World Wide Web. Content will evolve more slowly from extensions of the old media into more experimental and novel categories. Today's online services "are the Model Ts, the horseless carriages of the information future," says Bob Ingle, executive editor of the San Jose Mercury News . The new media content patterns beginning to emerge include:
* customizing and personalizing content,
* layering information to provide increased depth and detail to those with specialized interests, and
* creating dynamic virtual worlds where users can enter immersive three-dimension environments, experience simulations and discover unexpected or serenditous information, providing a new media version of one of the hallmarks of the traditional media--the "eureka" of a chance news encounter.
Content providers will respond to the intellectual property challenges of the digital age in a number of ways, including branding, electronic signature identification (i.e., the digital watermark) and international partnerships. Audiences are likely to be defined not as much by geography or political boundary, but by other lifestyle, psychographic and generational factors. Perhaps more importantly, audience members will become important providers and shapers of content. Although most will remain in the passive, couch potato mode, many, especially in the younger audience segment, will enter into an interactive, participatory mode, much as now prevails on the Internet. Content delivery will evolve increasingly toward a networked environment. Initially, many products will be on CD-ROM and other optical media, although magnetic formats will persist. Still, the efficiency of online delivery and the growing reach of online technologies, especially with the advent of wireless technologies, in concert with improved compression, encryption and legal protections for intellectual property rights, will help online technologies prevail and become the dominant mode of delivery. Importantly, dominant multimedia production technologies now provide built-in, automatic translators for Web publishing. MacroMedia Director, the leading authoring environment for CD-ROM, introduced in late 1995 a product called Shockwave for creating similar multimedia content for the Web. Marimba has produced a new network product called Castanet that works in alliance with Macromedia Shockwave. In beta testing until early 1997, Castanet is an Internet delivery system that incorporates both a client (Castanet Tuner) and a server (Castanet Transmitter). Together, these client and server software tools enable end-users to subscribe to Internet "application channels" built on the Castanet system. Rather than relying exclusively on an on-demand, pull network approach, Castanet delivers Web content to the local end-user (i.e., the channel resides locally on the client or subscriber computer), permitting the end-user to access the site without reloading the site each time. Updates are automatically downloaded and installed, but require minimal bandwidth because only that portion of the site that is new is refreshed. Sites currently using the Castanet technology include HotWired, CMP Media, Tribune Media and Sportsline. Castanet and similar technologies offer a possible solution to the network congestion problem emerging with the 1990s growth of the Internet.
To sum up, publishers should consider the following ten new media guidelines:
* Digital multimedia, including a combination of full-motion video, audio, hypertext and data, all fully manipulable on either optical or online format;
* Online versions of media products do not seem to cannibalize print or broadcast version. Experience, in fact, suggests that use of online products on the World Wide Web on the Internet generally enhances interest in traditional format products, especially when the online and traditional versions are not strict duplicates of each other. Online offerings, however, are most effective when they offer original content, and not simply repurposed or repackaged content from other media;
* True interactivity, featuring "upstream" capability;
* Flexible cost structure, to allow consumers extensive choice in designing their own information system;
* Intellectual property rights protections and limitations, to insure the integrity, credibility and maximum lifespan of their content creations—many multimedia projects have already stalled over the complexities and cost of copyright considerations;
* Security, including encryption, to protect communications in a public network environment; and,
* International partnerships, which will enable domestic companies to effectively enter and succeed in foreign markets where local expertise is essential; and,
* Original, quality content, without which consumers will have no significant reason to turn to new media offerings—this will cost more to produce, but ultimately will be worth the extra investment;
* Privacy protections for not only the general public but for employees and individuals around the world, and,
* Freedom of expression protections, without which, the new media environment will be destined to whither and die.
Although these general guidelines may suggest an optimistic view of the future, those entering the world of digital publishing would be wise to exercise caution. As of this writing few of the technologies examined in this book are settled. Most are in an active process of evolution. Technical standards vary not only from region to region, but from country to country, and show little chance of settling down anytime soon. Legal and regulatory structures are rapidly evolving and the competitive environment is in a great state of flux. Much of the audience has almost no idea what to make of the new technologies. Many audience members find them fascinating, but unsure whether they will be worth the cost or offer any real advantages over existing sources of media entertainment, news and information. Content creators are also uncertain of how to proceed. So far, there are few truly original offerings in the new media environment. Most are simply adaptations and extensions of existing products and have about as much appeal as movie sequels, if that much. The new rules of content production are also up in the air. No one knows exactly what a multimedia "script" is worth, how long it will take to produce and whether it will ultimately turn a profit. One thing is certain: many entrepreneurs bold enough to leap into the new media world will lose much of their investment. Some will probably make a great deal of money. As one experienced corporate sponsor once said: half of my advertising is extremely effective. I just don't know which half. It may be that half of the new media products put into the market will succeed; unfortunately, no one knows which half.
The Intrepid Entrepreneur
The intrepid new media entrepreneur will integrate a considerable amount of research into his or her marketing efforts. Using both formative (i.e., diagnostic) and summative (i.e., end results) evaluation will greatly increase the efficiency of any new media marketing efforts, and provide the competitive edge and adaptability needed to survive and even thrive in a highly volatile market.
A variety of media entrepreneurs have offered their prognosis for the future. Among the most visionary of the new media entrepreneurs is Reese Schonfeld, president and CEO of The National Food Network. Schonfeld, the co-founder of CNN, has been promoting the virtues of the information highway since the mid-1980s, long before most had even heard of the idea. Schonfeld admits he does not know what final shape the information superhighway will take, but he knows what it should be: It should be digital, packet switched, and designed with an open architecture to allow everyone to produce content for it.
In agreement is John Malone, president and CEO, TCI, and "the most powerful man in television" adds premier media critic Ken Auletta. "A full-access universal network is really what we're talking about—broadband, fully interactive, bidirectional, and universally available," says Malone. "I see it happening in the next three to five years."
James C. Kennedy, chairman and chief executive officer of Cox Enterprises Inc. of Atlanta, is convinced that newspapers have a place on the information superhighway, but to secure that place they will need to demonstrate creativity and commitment to change. "If we don't have the courage and creativity to take these risks, we won't have to worry about the public trust we enjoy today," Kennedy told members of the Newspaper Association of America on June 27.
Admidst the swirling hype and hope of the digital revolution, Neal B. Freeman, a Peabody Award-winning television producer and chairman of the Blackwell Corporation, stands among those convinced of the promise of the information highway. "The digital era of communications is here, and its essence is this: vastly more people will have vastly improved access to vastly more information." Freeman's conclusion is based upon an analysis of the political economy of the digital era, in which he believes we are at "one of those rare moments in techno-economic history when it becomes clear that some players will win big and many other players will win at least a little. The zero-sum, scarce-spectrum game is over, and real growth is at hand." What does he base his analysis upon? Five factors:
* The increased power of special interests, with dozens of groups having formed, for example, their own networks, ranging from The Caribbean Satellite Network to The Crime Channel to The Gaming Network.
* The retreat of telecommunications regulation, as the Clinton-Gore administration continues the momentum built during the Reagan-Bush years marked by the 1984 Modified Consent Decree divesting the Baby Bells from behemoth AT&T (note that in late 1996 NTT, the Japanese equivalent of AT&T announced its parallel division into three smaller parts).
* The loss of America's cultural hegemony, as the global information network slowly erodes U.S. dominance in the creation of popular culture.
* The rise of the multinational corporation, making once-exotic "supranationals" such as Rupert Murdoch the norm, as it is the exceptional company that does not systematically move its rising young executives around the global markets.
* The emergence of the digital press, as online, multimedia newspapers and magazines take hold, redefining the concept of news and markets no longer limited by geographic or political boundaries.
At the same time consumers will have access to an increasing flow of raw data feeds from electronic media of all types. The need for information filters will rise dramatically. Traditional news media organizations will have an opportunity to expand their interpretation function. Smart agents will rapidly move into our digital midst. One fascinating Israeli company has already introduced three classes of intelligent agents for the Internet. LiveAgent, SearchAgent and LiveAgent Pro were released in 1997 by AgentSoft Ltd each of which performs customizable, routine tasks on the World Wide Web. LiveAgent, for example, is a personal agent on the Web, observing one's browsing behavior (which sites one visits, what information one obtains or clicks on) and then replicates those behaviors, routinely returning updated information, etc. The next generation of intelligent agents will fall into a new class called adaptive agents. Adaptive agents will not only observe one's online behavior, but extend it to new arenas. For example, an adaptive agent might watch as we browse three news sites, observing the categories of stories we are most interested in (e.g., information technology). The adaptive agent would then visit other similar sites (i.e., news sites we did not visit) and obtain additional information technology stories, even compiling a "natural language" (i.e., English) summarization of the essential facts as well as the notable differences or contradictory facts reported at each site. A collaborative project involving the faculty from Department of Computer Science and the Center for New Media at Columbia University is in fact already working on a test of such a "smart" application.
Careers in the New Media: The Educational Mandate
Anyone planning a career in new media should be prepared for change, adaptation and convergence. Few new media technologies are settled into their final form. As the technology continues to evolve, content production processes will continue to change. Moreover, as the new media of the digital age grow in importance, individuals with a rich understanding of technology convergence will have an advantage. New media products will become increasingly multimedia in format, with text, data, audio and motion video blending in a single communications environment. Students preparing for new media careers should take courses both in the liberal arts and in all aspects of human communication. Medium-specific courses or degrees will have decreasing value in the emerging new media environment. Instead, the next generation of students will need to combine basic skills in thinking and writing with new media coursework emphasizing all aspects of human communication, from interpersonal and group communication to mediated and networked communications.
The Business Forecast
"You acted unwisely," I cried, "as you see by the outcome." He calmly eyed me; "When choosing the course of my action," said he, "I had not the outcome to guide me."
Ambrose Bierce
Against a backdrop of considerable optimism and enthusiasm for the coming new media age, there is still profound commercial and cultural risk in investing millions, even billions, of dollars in staking out territory on the new media business frontier. Although there is no way to completely remove the risk from entering the new media marketplace, there are ways to minimize that risk. One set of tools comes from the field of financial analysts, commercial high rollers accustomed to risk taking. One of the premier financial analysts specializing in the media is J. Kendrick Noble, a veteran media analyst, who recently completed a senior fellowship at The Freedom Forum Media Studies Center. Noble's fellowship research included developing a methodology for conducting a business forecast for the media industry. Based on an examination of data for a variety of media and communication fields, including newspapers, magazines, cable TV and telephony, for much of the 20th century, Noble suggests that reliable forecasts for new media technologies are possible, at least under limited circumstances. Perhaps most importantly, the forecasts must be based on accurate historical time-series data. Moreover, any forecast should be extended for no more than one-third the time frame of the original data. That is, if historical data are available for 30 years, then any forecast or prediction, should be limited to the next 10 years. For example, if data are available for 1965-1995, then a reliable forecast can be made through 2005. Beyond that period, the forecast is subject to many unexpected factors and likely to vary widely from the observed or actual pattern. By inference, the time-series data available for World Wide Web commercial ventures is no more than about three years, making predictions beyond a year highly uncertain.
Noble further notes that mathematical curves known as "S" curves are among the most commonly used tools for such forecasting. Such so-called "growth curves" are based on mathematical models for describing growth rates among biological organisms, such as humans or micro-organisms. Logistic (or Pearl) and Gompertz curves are among the most widely used growth curves, and Noble argues are effective for conducting new media forecasts. Others have used such biological models in describing media growth patterns, as well, including studies of media specialization and niche publishing. In Noble's research, a logistic curve provided an accurate description of the household penetration of the telephone from 1877 to 1931, but as a result of the Great Depression, underestimated the ultimate penetration level of the telephone in the 1980s (i.e., the model predicted telephone penetration would top out at about 40%, when it actually reached close to 95% in the 1980s). Use of a Gompertz curve provided a somewhat less accurate description of the adoption level of the telephone during the first half of the 20th Century, but accurately forecast the penetration level of the 1980s. Assuming the Gompertz curve provides a more reliable long-term forecast for media household penetration, Noble's analysis suggests that cable TV will achieve in 2040 the same household penetration achieved by telephony in the 1980s (i.e., roughly 95%).
Given the utility of these financial forecasting methods, new media entrepreneurs should consider employing logistic and Gompertz curves to project the possible market for new media technologies. The results might help steer them away from huge financial blunders and into more productive, even if smaller-scale ventures. Still, a word of caution comes from an unlikely theological source. The Rev. Donald Shriver, former president of the Union Theological Seminar in New York, warns that a forecast for the future of the media, an institution central not only to the functioning of our economy but to our cultural and political process, may have greater value if it is contrasted against an alternative prediction, or based on clearly outlined conditions in an if/then fashion. Typically, Noble observes, financial analysts must forecast a single projection, because it is what the clients demand. If their forecasts are right, they will succeed and make a lot of money. If they are wrong, they will need to find a new line of work. Intrepid new media investors should consider both the best and worst case forecasts before investing heavily in new media technologies.
A Consumer's Guide to Digital Communication
As the world of digital communication continues to evolve, media consumers will need to develop a new form of electronic media literacy. Central to this literacy are understanding the dimensions, grammar and commercial nature of multimedia and cyberspace communications. As these two forms of digital communications converge, or collide, in the emerging information superhighway the new literacy will also continue to evolve. The rules and guidelines offered here are merely a starting point, and will require continual updating as the technology and its uses evolve.
"Seeing is believing" is an adage many have subscribed to for centuries. But in today's digital media age it can no longer be relied upon. Digital image processors have made synthetic video commonplace. As a result, new media consumers need to be both aware of the new rules of the game, as well as how new media content producers will respond. Outlined below are ten rules, or commandments, to guide consumers navigating the world of digital communications. The first three rules apply generally to digital media, and the rest apply to cyberspace and beyond.
Rule number 1: question everything that is seen, heard, read or watched in the new media environment. Digital processors and those who own one make detecting synthetic content almost impossible, and there is no government agency like the Federal Drug Administration (FDA) charged with evaluating media content, partly as a result of the First Amendment, partly a result of the complexity and scope of the existing communication system, and largely because of technology itself.
Rule number 2: conclude that almost everything in the new media environment is created to make money for someone. The few media products that truly do not have a commercial basis are as rare as a VCR that never blinks "12:00".
Rule number 3: assume that every new technology is a potential threat to your privacy. Every interactive system from your cable TV to the telephone to the World Wide Web has the ability to record every interaction you engage it in. The question you must ask yourself is: is the convenience it provides worth the loss of privacy? The questions to ask the service provider are: what information about me and my use of your service are you recording, how will you use it, and will you make the information available to anyone else, to whom and for what price?
Exploring the Limits of Cyberspace: The Possible and the Impossible
Cyberspace is the domain of networked communications (most often the Internet) that today encircle the globe, and tomorrow may stretch well beyond planet Earth. Although its beginnings were meager and the applications generally limited to electronic mail and file transfers, today the boundaries of cyberspace are rapidly expanding. Electronic bombs are sometimes as frequent as electronic mail, commercial transactions are almost as common on some systems as document transfers, and electronic publishing is challenging commercial printing as the state of the art in reaching both niche and mass markets. Moreover, the frontier nature of cyberspace also abounds with villains, outlaws and heroes. Together, these patterns lead to
rule number 4: assume there are no boundaries in cyberspace, other than your own or someone else's imagination.
The following rules are especially important for parents, but apply to anyone concerned about the digital world.
Rule number 5: apply all the rules of conventional media literacy to digital communications. In other words, be aware of what your children are tuned into, whether going online, exploring multimedia or simply playing videogames. Guide them in their selections, but also let them explore and enjoy freedom in making their own decisions. Debrief them periodically on their new media encounters.
Rule number 6: expect the unexpected. Because the limits of cyberspace are unknown and expanding, there will always be surprises. This is much of what attracts young people to explore the online world, the Internet and the World Wide Web. It is participatory, evolving and allows connections to people all around the world. There are many benefits possible, including cultural enrichment, education and cognitive development. But there are also dangers, some of which are outlined below. As a corollary to this rule, consider what many have dubbed the Year 2000 Problem. Many software programs and computers run on an internal calendar based on a system of two digits (e.g., DD-MM-YY). As a result, many are concerned about what will happen to many of the world's computers and computer programs at the end of century when the year becomes "00". Programs that use the year to make calculations (e.g., Accounting) are especially susceptible to the problem. The Social Security Administration estimates that it will need to revise some 50 million lines of code to correct this problem in its own system. Expect the unexpected in the Year 2000!
Rule number 7: never assume that if your child is using their computer that they are necessarily engaged in something educational. Although it is tempting to think that using the computer is better than watching television, it's not necessarily the case. Pedophilia in the online world is not uncommon. Sexual content is among the most commonly transmitted digital material on the Internet. Children should always be monitored when using their computer, especially if their system has an online connection, including a modem and a phone line. It's wise to talk to your child after they use the computer to find out what they have been doing. Or, better yet, join them in their computer explorations and game playing. When buying computer games, always read reviews and make sure that the content is suitable for your child. Many games are fun, educational and harmless. But many are equally filled with violence, sexual exploitation and even racism. Many of both the best and worst games can be obtained through cyberspace. Monitor your child's computer use to make sure the material they may be downloading is appropriate for them and meets your standards. Also, make sure that your child is not obtaining pirated material, such as digital recordings of copyrighted music or video. This is not only potentially dangerous, but is illegal. If you do find pirated material, talk to your child about how they received it, and delete the files. A variety of online resources are available to help parents screen out unwanted online content, including software filters such as SurfWatch, Cyber Patrol and Net Nanny. Similarly, a variety of Web sites provide site reviews to give parents a sense of what sites are not only most suitable for children but will meet their children's needs and tastes. Cnet.com is one site that provides not only reviews of "the best of the Web," but also for CD-ROM offerings.
Corollaries to rule number 7:
* Beware of anyone bearing uninvited gifts, anything free, or anything that sounds too good to be true—because it probably is. The Internet is filled with hucksters, charlatans, con artists and worse. The discussion below examines the dimensions of the lawless nature of the electronic frontier.
* never give out your name, address or phone number, and instruct your child to do likewise, and to never give out the name of their school.
* don't respond to angry or obscene online messages; report them to the manager of the online service you or your child uses.
* know the online service(s) your child uses, and see if blocking is available.
Rule number 8: encourage the spirit of the First Amendment in cyberspace. Freedom of expression is perhaps the strongest positive force to countervail against many of the potentially negative forces at work in cyberspace. By promoting more communication, not less, participants in the global online community will enjoy a more robust communication environment, one in which truth will likely prevail over falsehood. Such platitudes may seem naive in today's somewhat cynical age, but they reflect the importance of reaffirming the Constitutional guarantees on the electronic frontier.
Rule number 9: Think twice before buying the first, or even second generation of any new media technology. Chances are great that the early generations may have bugs, or technical problems. Subsequent versions are likely to be considerably less expensive and work better, often having more features and being less complicated. Also, new technologies will tend to evolve toward a more unified set of standards, allowing greater compatibility among software from different companies or suppliers. This is not a hard and fast rule, but it tends to be the case.
Rule number 10: Experiment with and enjoy the technology. Test and explore the limits of cyberspace. If you have children, encourage them to do the same, and don't be afraid to ask them for help and advice. Chances are your children may know more about using many of the new media technologies than you do. Seeking their advice will not only be educational, but it will show them respect, help build their self-esteem, and encourage them to share future electronic discoveries with you. Research at the Pathways for Women in the Sciences program at Wellesley College suggests three ingredients are especially important in creating a user-friendly environment that will encourage girls to explore new media technology: hands-on experience, teamwork and relevance. Following these rules may not insure safe, enjoyable and learning new media environment, but they will increase the chances of electronic success.
Scenario for Tomorrow: Knowbots, Virtual Reality and Cyberpunks
Because it is neither owned and controlled by anyone, nor regulated by government (the CDA not withstanding), the Internet has served as a hotbed for unrestrained communication and an information free-for-all. Although philosopher John Locke may have been pleased to see his notion of a marketplace of ideas come to digital fruition, he may have been equally concerned about some of the emerging patterns of abuse.
Anarchy and Lawlessness on the Electronic Frontier
Technology reporter Peter H. Lewis writes that "Turks and Armenians have brought their decades-old hatred to the digital stage, accusing one another of using electronic mail forgeries and software that seeks and destroys an enemy's messages to the broader community." Elsewhere on the "net," computer programmers are preparing "electronic mail bombs" to damage other users' computers, pedophiles are going online to recruit young boys for sex, pornographic images are transmitted in large volume. Many long-time users are worried that the free and open atmosphere that has existed on the Internet and fostered an intellectual climate rich in diversity will be replaced by one chilled by obscenity and pandering to the lowest common denominator, where prejudice and promiscuity become the norm.
Strategies to protect the Internet community have been few, and some have given up hope. "Certainly there will never be any consensus to establish a regulatory body for Usenet (largest news groups on the Internet)," writes Mr. Botz in an e-mail. "And no, the existing defenses are clearly not adequate. So what will happen? The Net as we know it will die."
Others see a technological solution. "What people will probably do is invent 'site kill files,'" writes David Hayes, a Usenet participant who works at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, CA. "Site Kill Files" allow a user to block selected computer messages or specific parts of the network. At the same time, site kill files could be used to censor politically unpopular views, not just obscene messages or unsolicited advertisements.
Virtual Reality
Jaron Lanier, the creator of the first virtual reality device, says that passive entertainment will always have a place in the media world, but he believes there is also a much more engaging place for virtual reality. Virtual reality is in use in a variety of industries and applications, including industry, design, education, medicine, art and entertainment. In Germany, virtual reality technology is helping in the redesign of the city of Berlin, with VR technology controlling construction robots. In Japan, department store shoppers use VR applications to design their own kitchen, try it out and have it delivered. In the U.S., Medical Media Systems of New Hampshire is using virtual reality to enhance surgical tools. The company's VR technologies integrate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with live sensory data to give a surgeon a three-dimensional view of the body. Conjuring up images of the science fiction film classic "Fantastic Voyage" starring Raquel Welch, surgeons also use an instrument called endoscopic surgery, in which a tiny optical fiber is inserted into the body to control micro-instruments. By remotely controlling this device, the surgeon virtually experiences the interior of the body. "It is like a zone for a fighter pilot," says Lanier.
Although the passive couch potato may not quickly become a thing of the past, historians of the next millennium may someday need to write a virtual media history. Shaping that future is research scientist Brenda Laurel, whose work at Interval Research, a new Palo Alto, Calif., think tank, is creating virtual reality products generally not held in high regard in the commercial sector because they do not involve killing. Laurel's virtual reality creations include a "virtual environment for two" at the Banff Center for the Arts in Canada which lets visitors don computerized helmets and hand sensors to take a simulated trek to a mountain cave and step into the bodies of a snake, fish, spider or crow.
Virtual Prisons?
The social consequences of virtual reality are potentially profound. Consider one possible VR application described below. As U.S. prisons bulge with one of the world's highest prison populations, the number of repeat offenders swells, prison riots become a frequent occurrence, and questions about the cost-effectiveness of the penal system grow ever stronger, new technology may present a partial answer. Virtual reality applications currently range from the field of entertainment to medicine, from arcade games to military flight simulators. The technologies of virtual reality (VR) may also lead to a new approach to dealing with persons convicted of a variety of types of crime, particularly non-violent offenders: virtual prisons. With the average cost of incarcerating one prisoner for one year in excess of $20,000, the cost of the necessary VR application may be a highly affordable alternative. With VR applications already being tested for a variety of forms of mental health therapies, using VR technologies to treat inmates does not require a very great intellectual leap. Prisoners could be fitted for VR visors, datagloves and even body suits to immerse them in a total synthetic environment, where all stimuli are controlled by medical or other prison personnel. The created environments might range from educational settings in which inmates are taught work-skills, to therapeutic fantasies in which violent urges and tendencies are released and purged as in a form of catharsis. Imagine a world in which an inmate born and raised in the war-torn landscape of urban America can rest in a pastoral setting, walking in a meadow, even visiting a farm rich with livestock. Potential human rights violations exist, however, as the use of VR as a form of psychological punishment or brainwashing is possible. Oversight boards would be required to supervise the use of VR technologies in this fashion. Nevertheless, virtual prisons may be at least a partial solution to the rehabilitation of America's prison population. On the other hand, perhaps we will all become prisoners of a virtual space, where technology's reach is inescapable. Wireless communicators, personal communication services, even a phone number assigned at birth, placed on a micro-chip and implanted in one's first set of adult teeth may be just around the corner.
Sonification
As we move into an era dominated by information, we are threatened by an increasingly complex and bewildering array of data. T.S. Eliot once asked, "Where is the wisdom lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge lost in information" Anthony Smith today asks, "Where is the information lost in data?" "Sonification" may provide at least a partial answer. "Sonification" refers to the notion of making scientific data audible. Introduced into the technical literature in 1952, the notion has surfaced from time to time since then. Recently, a sonification research program emerged at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) at the University of Illinois. "If you work in the field of computer music, representing data with sound is a pretty obvious idea," says Illinois composer Robin Bargar. The group at NCSA has developed sonification software that uses an IBM-compatible PC and a MIDI synthesizer to turn just about any data into sound. Gregory Kramer, a musician similarly intrigued by the notion of sonification, has developed a system in which sound represents several variables at once. Clarity, the company he founded in Garrison, NY, is designing a sonification system for operating rooms, which will broadcast the patient's vital signs, including blood pressure and oxygen levels. The trick to sonification systems is developing a trained ear for sound, but it's a problem that training can overcome. Says Kramer, "You know when your car is running well just by listening to it. A certain noise, like a rattle, might also tell you what's wrong. Sounds in a well-designed sonification system could be interpreted in much the same way. In the next decade, specialized applications of sonification technology might allow physicians to analyze complex patient data simply by listening to their audio representation. Perhaps sports fans one day may digest complex sports statistics simply by listening to an audio representation of the data on their personal digital appliance.
Artificial Life
Notions of artificial life, or living beings created by human hands, have dwelled in man and woman's imagination for more than a century. Victorian novelist Mary Shelley envisioned an artificial lifeform in her classic novel of Gothic horror, Frankenstein. More recently, Hungarian mathematician John Von Neuman described the automaton, a robotic machine capable of self-replication and other lifelike qualities. Logician Alan Turing outlined the foundation for machine-based life in his creation called the Turing Machine.
As a scientific discipline, the field of artificial life is in its infancy, however, with the first formal conference held in 1987. Nevertheless, a number of computer scientists have conducted pioneering research to create computer-based life forms, artificial life, or a-life, which exhibit many of the qualities commonly associated with "real" life. These qualities include the ability to see, to eat, to reproduce and engage in sexual activity, to make decisions, to adapt to a changing environment, to demonstrate processes of natural selection. Since these artificial beings are capable of dying, then conversely, they are also capable of living. Tomorrow's media world may be populated more heavily by electronic a-life forms than by their human counterparts. Many of these a-life forms will be acting as personal assistants, or know-bots, to go in seek of the information their human masters desire, to make or break appointments, or even conduct transactions at the bank or the supermarket based on rules that we have established for them. At the same time, many of these electronic creatures may be less socially acceptable. One of the most notorious forms of artificial life is the computer virus. Although invented as an academic exercise, the computer virus has evolved to become a powerfully destructive force. Beyond the computer virus, future forms of a-life may exceed even a science-fiction writer's most devilish imagination.
Most Wanted in Cyberspace
When Willie Sutton once was asked why he robbed banks, he replied: because that's where the money is. If cyberspace's most wanted cyberpunk were asked why he turned computer hacker, would he respond in like fashion: because that's where the information is? We may soon find out. Computer wizard Kevin Mitnick became the F.B.I.'s most wanted computer hacker for allegedly stealing software and data from more than a half dozen cellular telephone manufacturers. After being hunted for violation of a Federal probation requirement that he not enter computers illegally, Mitnick was apprehended when the San Diego SuperComputer Center's Tsutomu Shimomura, a well known security expert, helped federal authorities track him down. Mitnick had hacked into the home computer of Shimomura, raising his ire. Shimomura then turned his own computer security talents to tracking Mitnick and eventually led authorities on an electronic manhunt to Mitnick's Raleigh, NC apartment. Shimomura has since signed substantial (reported to be for more than $1 million) book, film and CD-ROM contracts to tell the story of how he helped catch Mitnick.
Reflecting on the strange case, New York Times technology reporter John Markoff reports that as a teen-ager, Mitnick used a computer and modem to:
* secretly read electronic mail of computer security officials at MCI Communications;
* access telephone company central offices in Manhattan and the phone switching centers in California, allowing him to listen in on phone calls and engage in high-tech hijinks like reprogramming home phones so that callers would hear a recording asking for a deposit of 25 cents; and,
* break into a North American Air Defense Command computer, foreshadowing the 1983 movie "War Games."
Some see Mitnick as a cyberspace hero, and a victim of the Internet-mania of the mid-1990s. Chris Gulker reports at the Random Access Web site, "Is Kevin Mitnick a dangerous criminal apprehended by an ingenious high-tech detective? Or a sad, if annoying, loner who was set up by shrewd manipulators cashing in on Internet hype?"
The Global Information Infrastructure: Gore
One of the emerging benefits of the new information age is the development of a global information infrastructure (GII). The GII refers to the emerging network of advanced telecommunications, computing and information technologies around the world, particularly the Internet. Although the GII will not reach all communities, countries and computers simultaneously and in equal fashion, it will—in fact, it already does—reach many millions of persons around the world. The GII will make it possible for persons in even remote regions to stay in constant electronic touch. It will enable low-cost, high-speed commercial transactions from any location in the world, as long as they are connected to the GII. It will provide electronic access to diverse resources located throughout the world.
Important questions about the GII include:
* Who will have access?
* What will be the cost of access and use?
* Who will pay for the construction of the GII?
* How will the GII be controlled or regulated?
* What guarantees for freedom of expression will exist in the GII?
* How will regional differences in GII policy be managed in an international arena?
A Global Virtual Digital Library
From a cultural perspective, one of the most important opportunities the GII affords is the creation of a global virtual digital library. Such a library is already developing, as electronic resources such as those at the OCLC, the U.S. Library of Congress and at countless libraries and public institutions connect to the global computer network known as the Internet. This library is virtual in the sense that its collection, as it were, is housed in no single physical location. Rather, it exists in digital format in many decentralized locations, in computers in libraries, schools, offices and elsewhere. Each digital location acts as a communication portal, or file server, providing electronic access, browsing or downloading of material to any location in the world connected to the GII. Important questions about this global virtual digital library are many, and parallel those outlined above regarding the GII.
A New Athenian Age of Democracy
Perhaps even more important than the development of virtual libraries is the implications of digital communications for the political system. For more than a century, political pundits have pondered the role of electronic media in the democratic process. Today, vice president Gore proclaims that networked communications may signal the beginning of a new Athenian Age of Democracy. Lawrence Grossman, former president of NBC News and PBS, echoes this view in his book The Electronic Republic, suggesting that new media technologies are rapidly transforming the democratic system from one of representation to direct democracy. Armed with their computers, modems and WebTVs, citizens increasingly have direct access to the political process. Not only can they communicate directly with political candidates and elected officials, but they can vote on referenda and other legislative issues. Such a political transformation may be both a good and a dangerous thing. Although direct access technology may enhance political participation, it may also lead to political decisions based on little more than the emotions aroused by dramatic television images. More alarmingly, the selective development and diffusion of new technologies, the lack of access to the poor and the difficulty in using many new technologies may also lead to political tyranny of the majority, with minority voices being lost in a digital cacophony.
Electronic Town Meetings
For more than two centuries, town meetings have been a vital part of democracy in America, making the electoral process a participatory rather than a spectator sport. French philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville observed how town meetings gave Americans a hands-on education in democracy. Brandeis University Professor Jeffrey Abramson notes that the town meeting was originally designed to meet three purposes:
* to educate citizens about common concerns,
* to empower citizens to self-government, and
* to engage citizens in an open and universally accessible process.
Of course, since their inception, town meetings have failed to fully meet these goals, sometimes restricting participation based on race, gender, church membership and property. Still, the town meeting has been pursued as a democratic ideal. In its most recent incarnation, it emerged during the 1992 and 1996 presidential campaigns in a new, technologically driven form called the electronic town hall. Texas Businessman Ross Perot trumpeted the electronic town hall as the platform for a new era of democracy. Others hailed the electronic town hall as a 21st century technique to reintroduce face-to-face communication in a media society. But electronic town meetings are not necessarily a panacea. Not everyone may have access to the technology needed to participate fully. There is a tendency for "push button" democracy to take hold, where rather than meet and discuss, participants may do little more than push a button on a telephone hand set or a remote control to indicate approval or disagreement.
Abramson argues that three conditions are necessary for effective deliberation at a town meeting:
* Citizens should be able to explore political messages of substance at length and in depth, without limiting exchanges to ever-shrinking soundbites;
* Citizens must be able to reflect on those messages, and not respond instantaneously; and,
* Citizens should be able to interact and exchange views and ideas, to test each other's reactions, and weigh their opinions against those of others.
Although face-to-face meetings can clearly satisfy these conditions, how well electronic town halls fare is a matter of how they are designed and executed. Technology may make it possible to bring together many participants at remote and scattered locations, but it can also encourage instantaneous response and a lack of substantial communication.
Abramson outlines six critical issues in designing electronic town meetings to satisfy the above criteria for effective political deliberation.
* Venue. New media technologies enable us to hold electronic town meetings on a national, regional or local level. The choice of venue depends on both the issue or political campaign, as well as citizen access to the relevant technology.
* Issue. Every electronic town meeting should be devoted to a single, clearly stated issue, such as national health care or the federal deficit.
* Agenda-setting/Editorial Control. Setting the issues for the town meeting is a complex matter and research by Abramson suggests two models. The primary model is for the organization hosting the meeting, such as a news organization, to choose the issues and plan the event, including selecting moderators, experts, etc. Alternatively, it is sometimes effective for a non-profit group to set the agenda.
* Audience/Participants. Rarely will a town meeting, electronic or face-to-face, satisfy the demands of scientific sampling and representativeness of the broader population. Instead, audience members are typically self-selected, and represent only politically active groups. Thus, Abramson recommends building an audience in two stages. First, there will naturally be the primary, self-selected audience, often limited to those who can come to a TV studio. Second, a broader audience should be invited to participate through the use of interactive technology such as the telephone through 800 or 900 numbers or through online communications such as an Internet forum.
* Choice of Interactive Technology. Interactive technology provides three main options for providing audience involvement and participation. First and most basic is touch-tone telephone dialing, particularly 800 and 900 networks provided by carriers such as AT&T and MCI. These networks can process more than 10,000 calls in 90 seconds. For national town meetings, it is essential to provide sufficient 800 network capacity. The CBS "America Online" special during the 1992 campaign frustrated many callers by providing too little capacity—only 314,786 calls got through out of some 24.6 million attempts.
Second is 2-way cable systems, which were inaugurated in the Warner Amex Qube experiment in the 1970's in Columbus, Ohio, and are today increasingly common. Interactive systems in San Antonio, TX, Minneapolis, MN, Portland, OR, Upper Manhattan, NY, Reading, PA, Orlando, FL and Fairfax, VA all allow the viewer to send messages upstream using a remote control as well as receive TV programming. Lack of access to nonsubscribers is a limitation of this approach.
Finally, online services provide a third technological option for electronic town meetings. Online computer forums are in fact already common on the Internet and on commercial services. They allow in-depth discussion of issues, as well as direct communication and exchange of ideas. Moreover, through the Internet it is possible to provide a forum for holding for the first time an electronic town meeting in an international global venue. As we move toward McLuhan's global village, this may become an increasingly important issue. Moreover, online forums are inexpensive, since telecommunication charges are only local. The biggest drawback to online network approaches is the limited availability of computers and online services among the general citizenry. Even in an information society such as the U.S., only some 36% of U.S. households have a computer and even less have a network connection. This situation, however, may rapidly change with the proliferation of powerful, inexpensive video game players and the convergence of telecommunications, cable and computers, as well as the increased availability of Internet access through schools, libraries and other public spaces. Other emerging technologies such as DBS and PCS may also provide a technological infrastructure for electronic town meetings by the end of the decade. Importantly, pioneering online voter information services were implemented via the Internet during the 1994 elections in California, including the Voter Online Information and Communications Exchange (VOICE) sponsored by two major national organizations, the League of Women Voters and Project Smart Vote. The 1996 campaign saw even greater online forums on the World Wide Web, with an increasingly diverse cross-section of the voting public accessing voter information at both official campaign sites as well as from reliable online news sources.
Voting from Home or Other Audience Locations.
This is in many ways the natural conclusion of the electronic town hall. One of the most significant problems in electronic voting, however, is the ability of individuals to vote multiple times. Similarly, it is important to provide multiple individuals at a single location the ability to each cast individual votes. A potential solution to these problems is to provide a personal identification number (PIN) to each participant to electronically monitor voting, assuring that each town hall participant could vote only once, and that each person at a location could cast a vote. Moreover, this approach would lay the foundation for full voting activity electronically, assuring that each ballot cast was entered by a registered voter. The security of each PIN would become imperative in such a system. Advanced systems could use optical scanners to verify voter identification through finger prints or retinal scans, although at present the cost of the necessary technology would be prohibitive. One of the important limitations of voting at electronic town meetings is generalizability beyond the meetings' participants. Participation in town hall meetings, whether traditional or electronic, is not representative of the population at large, and any results from a vote can not be fairly generalized to the broader population.
Freedom of Expression and Censorship in Cyberspace
Among the thorniest but most important issues confronting the electronic frontier is freedom of expression and censorship. How these issues are resolved will ultimately determine the value and contribution of networked communications in the political system and beyond. Although some First Amendment absolutists would shrug and say, "no law means no law," others perhaps more realistic will realize that there will always be limitations placed on speech, regardless of the venue or medium. Although no individual or group directly controls the Internet, a variety of corporate groups, individuals and governmental agencies have already placed constraints on freedom of expression, whether in the form of direct censorship, chilling activities and threats, or electronic eavesdropping. Commercial online services such as Prodigy and America OnLine have censored some bulletin boards, removing comments deemed offensive or objectionable. Some individuals have dispatched electronic bombs to incapacitate the computers of individuals whose communications they found undesirable. Law enforcement agencies have assigned officers to patrol electronic cyberspace beats, posing as latchkey children in an attempt to lure potential online pedophiles. Most would agree that catching online criminals is a good thing. Some might draw the line at corporate censorship. The bottom line is that online freedom of expression is in a state of uncertainty. Since no one controls the online world, no one or no institution is in a position to offer any legal guarantees or protections for free electronic speech, either in the U.S. or around the world.
The Next Generation: Children and Technology
Understanding the uses and consequences of new media technology ultimately hinges on understanding the next generation. Today's children and youth are the heaviest users of new media technology. They enjoy the highest comfort level with the technology. For them, many seemingly foreign and obtuse technologies are second nature and completely transparent. They often have an intuitive grasp of new media technologies. Whether programming a common house device like a VCR or accessing the Internet, many youth travel in and out of the cyberworld as easily as most adults get in an out of a car. Even toddlers 2-3 years old can learn to use a mouse and control a computer. One interesting Web site is designed just for kids. Called Internet-For-Kids, the site offers children of all ages a variety of customized educational and entertaining interactive tools and applications. Under the leadership of company founder and president, Victoria Williams, the site is a road-sign to the future.
To many older adults, the idea of talking to your computer, much less a banking machine, may seem like fanciful science fiction if not downright dangerous. But to the next generation, calling in to an automated banking machine and simply telling the computerized system what transactions you wish may be as simple as using an ATM is to most Americans today. One major bank in New York is already conducting a test with voice-response tele-banking. You dial in and simply say "representative" for the operator, or any of a number of other terms to select those banking options. The system works simply, easily and reliably. What's around the corner is anybody's guess. But one thing is certain: the next generation will glide as easily through this seemingly high-tech world as today's average household gourmet operates a microwave oven. The next generation's new media habits will also continue the transformation of new media technology. Their behavioral preferences and patterns and content choices will influence the design and future look and feel of tomorrow's media. The nature of interactivity will reflect the next generations' lifestyle and attitudes.
Jaron Lanier, the recognized "father" of virtual reality offers this view of the importance of the next generation:
"The digital superhighway is much more than a highway system. It's actually the construction of an entirely new virtual continent in which the highway runs. In the future, we will live part of our lives in cyberspace, in the world of virtual reality. We could bequeath few gifts to future generations more important than getting this right. It's critically important to balance public and private interests, much as it's very important to do so in land use, where even private land owners have certain obligations to the public."
No one can predict with any certainty the future of the
media world. Many elements will be new and unexpected, while perhaps most will continue to reflect the best and worst of today's media system. Commercial interests will no doubt continue to dominate, but there will be room for not-for-profit cultural forces. As we already see in the Internet, the role of an electronic public space will be profound. The future of the media world may not be ours entirely to shape, but it is ours to discover. Lord Tennyson once offered these encouraging words:
Come, my friends, 'T is not too late to seek a newer world."
Lord Alfred Tennyson
Ulysses, 1869
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